After Holiday Anomaly, Distributor Pandemic Index Falls Back to Contraction

Following a one-week spike caused by a Fourth of July-week anomaly, the new index more accurately reflects current conditions.

Warehouse Asdfas

After showing a major one-week jump over June 29-July 3, Indian River Consulting Group's Distributor Weekly Pandemic Revenue Index (PRI) fell back into contraction territory last week to a reading that more aligns with recent trends.

The PRI — aimed to show how distributor's revenues are faring amid the COVID-19 pandemic compared to a year earlier — showed a 23.1-percentage point swing during the holiday-induced June 29-July 3 week from -11.4 to +11.7 percent, with IRCG noting the spike was an anomaly caused by the July 4 holiday falling on a Saturday this year compared to a Thursday in 2019.

The newest PRI, reflecting the week of July 6-10, had a reading of -7.4 percent, meaning that for the 10 distributors surveyed in the newest PRI, their average revenue for the week was down 7.4 percent compared to a week earlier. The new mark resembles that of most of June, which showed readings of -8.5 for June 8-12; -5.7 for June 15-19; and -11.4 for June 22-26.

"Last week aside, there appeared to be some stabilizing both of the index and of its component companies," noted Mike Emerson, IRCG partner. "The index seems to be settling in to declines in the mid-single digits. Most participating companies are also showing consistency from week-to-week and not the dramatic swings we saw back in April."

Three distributor participants posted gains for the new PRI, while one distributor posted a decline greater than 20 percent.

"Although the index is showing stability, the situation around the country is far from it as lockdowns are starting to emerge," Emerson added.

IRCG would like to increase the sample size for the PRI and is calling on distributors to participate. If you are interested, reach out to Emerson at [email protected].  

The chart below shows the percent change in sales in 2020 compared with the same week in 2019.

Ircg Pandemic Revenue Index July 06 10 2020

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