Distributor Pandemic Index Now at 6 Straight Weeks of Double-Digit Declines

Last week's decline accelerated for a third-straight week, with the largest sampled distributor's YoY decline at a whopping 43 percent.

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Indian River Consulting Group’s (IRCG) distributor Pandemic Revenue Index (PRI) showed further deterioration during the week of April 27-May 1 compared to the week prior. The PRI showed a year-over-year sales decline of 18.92 percent for last week, compared to 14.8 percent for the week of April 20-24 and 13.3 percent the week prior.

Last week's PRI sample size was 10 distributors, the same as the week before. Of those 10 distributors, nine saw year-over-year declines last week, with the largest single decline at 43 percent. The index now has six straight weeks of double-digit average declines.

"Although there is a fair amount of conflicting information, the infection rate in the U.S. appears to be rather steady and the death toll does not appear to be declining near the rate all of us would like. The next few weeks will be very telling as the stay-at-home orders are lifted and human interactions increase," said Mike Emerson, IRCG partner. "Let’s hope everyone remains judicious and commerce can ramp up without everything getting shut down again. If there’s any good news, it’s that half the participants saw declines less than what they were a week ago."

IRCG hopes to expand the sample size of the PRI. If you are interested having your distribution firm participate, reach out to Emerson at [email protected].

The PRI was launched in late March to provide the B2B distribution space with a snapshot of how distributor revenues are doing amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The chart below shows the percent change in sales in 2020 compared with the same week in 2019, helping to reveal how revenue declines may have driven by uncontrollable forces, such as the current COVID-19 global disruption.

Ircg Pandemic Revenue Index April 21 May 01 2020 V2

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