Jim Haughey
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Notes from Jim Haughey
Recent Posts
Housing bill offers industry hope but at a high cost
April 24, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)
The house bill is still being negotiated but at this point includes a tax credit for all home purchases requested by the National association of Realtors, favors for investors in low income housing and a plan for the long dormant Federal Housing Administration to insure $300-400 billion dollars of mortgages that private investors do not want. Isn’t this how we got into this mess – by making loan repayment guarantees that could not be kept?
There are probably more specia...Read More
Industries: Construction
Recent Posts
The recession has begun
March 7, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)
The consequence for construction is a further reduction in space and facility demand and more available space and facility capacity. Most of this weaker outlook was incorporated in the construction spending forecast recently posted on this site. The immediate negative impact will hit commercial building construction much harder than other sectors. The value of February commercial starts fell 30% from January, well more than the usual seasonal decline. Full details for February starts will be posted on this site early next week. The big job losses will also extend the housing recession but that impact will not appear in the market data until late s...Read More
Recent Posts
Recession Probability Over 50%
February 4, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)
The economy all but stalled in the final quarter of 2007. Economic activity almost certainty declined in December and early data suggest another drop in January. A recession would be relatively brief and mild, similar to the last eight month recession in 2001. Monetary policy has already turned very expansionary with the 1.25% cut in credit costs by the Federal Reserve Board. Fiscal policy is also becoming aggressive with tax rebate check likely in the mail as early as May.
Recessions often begin with drops in business investment and consumer durables spending and a surge in inventory accumulation. None of these are happen...Read More
Recent Posts
Weak jobs reports set off another confidence crisis
January 16, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (2)
The consequences for construction are another round of turmoil in mortgage markets which disrupt and delay construction starts and another round of cuts in space and facility demand as homebuyers, facility managers and developers cautiously scale back to avoid being caught overextended.
The Federal Reserve Board and other central banks will need to inject more cash into the banking system; the flip side of this coin is another drop in interest rates for risk free government bonds. The cash is...Read More
Industries: Construction
Recent Posts
Main Street Vs. Wall Street
November 8, 2007 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)
Managers of non-financial companies have little interest in how investment managers and their lawyers sort out who ends up with the mortgage default losses. The message from the financial markets over the last four months, “someone has to bail us out or there will be serious problems for the rest of the economy” is rapidly losing cred...Read More
| Blogs | Recent Posts | Total Posts |
|---|---|---|
| Notes from Jim Haughey | 0 | 6 |
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