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Beaulieu: We are not in a recession-yet
We are not in a recession yet and will probably not be this year. But there will be a recession beginning in 2009 that will continue in 2010, before a recovery the following two years, according to well-known industry economist Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research.
Beaulieu, speaking this week at the annual meeting of the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors in Washington, D.C., noted that a recent survey indicated that 52 percent of the respondents already believe we are in a recession. “The reality is we’re not in a recession and our economy is growing and will continue to grow, although at a tepid pace,” Beaulieu said.
He said there will probably be 2.3 percent growth this year.
“Those who think it is here now are a year early,” he said, “They have a year to get ready for the downturn.” He also noted that the downturn in the housing market alone is not enough to tip us into a recession. Housing prices, however, will drop six to eight percent this year before bottoming late in 2009 or in 2010.
Beaulieu also forecast that energy prices will remain high and as the economy eventually slides into recession, consumer spending slows and interest rates rise.
Beaulieu said in preparing for the upcoming recession, distributors and manufacturers should be asking questions such as: “How’s my balance sheet…cash position? Do I have enough cash on hand?”
He advised business owners to watch their hiring plans, develop a layoff procedure and determine “what direction should I be going in to take advantage of changing demographics?”
The elder care market will be a “hot area,” he said, as well as education, green industries, transportation and travel and leisure and chemical industries. “Plan ahead and implement,” he said. The aerospace industry should do well this year as well as in 2009, he said.
Although the predicted recession in 2009-2010 will be global, certain regions and countries such as Australia, Canada and Southeast Asia, and South America will not bear the brunt of the downturn.
This is the first in a series of reports we’ll present from the NAW meeting. Be sure to check back at Keough’s Korner.
Beaulieu: We are not in a recession-yet
February 1, 2008
We are not in a recession yet and will probably not be this year. But there will be a recession beginning in 2009 that will continue in 2010, before a recovery the following two years, according to well-known industry economist Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research. Beaulieu, speaking this week at the annual meeting of the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors in Washington, D.C., noted that a recent survey indicated that 52 percent of the respondents already believe we are in a recession. “The reality is we’re not in a recession and our economy is growing and will continue to grow, although at a tepid pace,” Beaulieu said.
He said there will probably be 2.3 percent growth this year.
“Those who think it is here now are a year early,” he said, “They have a year to get ready for the downturn.” He also noted that the downturn in the housing market alone is not enough to tip us into a recession. Housing prices, however, will drop six to eight percent this year before bottoming late in 2009 or in 2010.
Beaulieu also forecast that energy prices will remain high and as the economy eventually slides into recession, consumer spending slows and interest rates rise.
Beaulieu said in preparing for the upcoming recession, distributors and manufacturers should be asking questions such as: “How’s my balance sheet…cash position? Do I have enough cash on hand?”
He advised business owners to watch their hiring plans, develop a layoff procedure and determine “what direction should I be going in to take advantage of changing demographics?”
The elder care market will be a “hot area,” he said, as well as education, green industries, transportation and travel and leisure and chemical industries. “Plan ahead and implement,” he said. The aerospace industry should do well this year as well as in 2009, he said.
Although the predicted recession in 2009-2010 will be global, certain regions and countries such as Australia, Canada and Southeast Asia, and South America will not bear the brunt of the downturn.
This is the first in a series of reports we’ll present from the NAW meeting. Be sure to check back at Keough’s Korner.
Posted by Jack Keough on February 1, 2008 | Comments (0)
Industries: Executive Management
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