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ISM Report On Business Receives Annual Adjustments From Commerce Department

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:59am

U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

Tempe, AZ — The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2013 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2013, and the January 2013 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 5, 2013.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2013).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2009 through 2012, as well as the 2013 projected seasonal factors. The 2013 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2014. Projected seasonal factors for 2013 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMIfor Manufacturing and NMI and Business Activity Indexes for Non-Manufacturing.

2013 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes
(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)
  New OrdersProductionEmploymentSupplier Deliveries
      
Jan20131.0030.9880.9720.980
Feb20131.0461.0511.0170.992
Mar20131.1081.1200.9961.053
Apr20131.0901.1121.0851.031
May20131.0871.1221.0381.036
Jun20131.0511.0401.0571.020
Jul20130.9180.8851.0021.027
Aug20130.9330.9621.0031.003
Sep20130.9670.9190.9561.007
Oct20130.9240.9380.9870.960
Nov20130.9270.9470.9380.949
Dec20130.9350.9010.9310.942

 

To compute the PMI:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place). Note: As of January 2012, the ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted.

3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2013 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes
      
  Business ActivityNew OrdersEmploymentPrices
      
Jan20130.9390.9830.9051.017
Feb20131.0011.0130.9881.013
Mar20131.0881.0891.0321.074
Apr20131.0731.0651.0861.093
May20131.0441.0541.0871.067
Jun20131.0471.0121.0800.986
Jul20130.9690.9451.0520.949
Aug20130.9410.9340.9650.973
Sep20130.9990.9810.9490.962
Oct20130.9550.9500.9250.971
Nov20130.9640.9930.9530.949
Dec20130.9790.9810.9770.944

To compute the NMI:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2009-2012

       
  PMINew OrdersProductionEmploymentSupplier Deliveries 
 Jan200934.931.830.328.845.5 
 Feb200935.532.835.325.546.0 
 Mar200936.040.336.328.641.9 
 Apr200939.546.539.033.244.4 
 May200941.749.042.734.849.2 
 Jun200945.851.755.440.750.4 
 Jul200949.957.659.947.152.2 
 Aug200953.566.662.446.156.5 
 Sep200954.463.361.247.858.4 
 Oct200956.059.963.052.458.4 
 Nov200954.460.662.751.757.5 
 Dec200955.363.062.351.658.3 
         
 Jan201056.660.462.954.459.5 
 Feb201055.757.457.255.060.0 
 Mar201059.362.661.955.160.6 
 Apr201058.965.162.757.059.0 
 May201057.863.962.656.859.8 
 Jun201056.159.562.055.957.3 
 Jul201056.456.158.958.859.2 
 Aug201057.856.161.361.257.3 
 Sep201056.554.161.157.254.1 
 Oct201057.358.262.159.853.3 
 Nov201058.258.359.460.059.4 
 Dec201057.358.861.559.057.4 
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
  PMINew OrdersProductionEmploymentSupplier Deliveries  
 Jan201159.263.263.159.658.1 
 Feb201159.662.763.961.959.2 
 Mar201159.362.763.961.559.5 
 Apr201159.463.859.560.259.2 
 May201153.552.453.158.655.0 
 Jun201155.854.156.759.055.9 
 Jul201152.351.354.256.651.5 
 Aug201153.252.953.053.452.0 
 Sep201153.251.654.456.151.9 
 Oct201151.552.253.053.252.4 
 Nov201152.354.855.853.251.1 
 Dec201152.955.158.954.650.6 
 
        
 
       
 Jan201253.756.554.955.352.2 
 Feb201251.954.954.852.148.4 
 Mar201253.356.855.955.648.0 
 Apr201254.157.659.056.848.7 
 May201252.557.254.155.949.2 
 Jun201250.249.652.455.749.5 
 Jul201250.547.553.353.249.7 
 Aug201250.748.948.952.650.2 
 Sep201251.651.751.453.750.5 
 Oct201251.752.853.352.349.9 
 Nov201249.951.153.150.150.1 
 Dec201250.249.752.651.953.7 
         
                   

*The ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted as of January 2012.

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI of 42.2 percent. A PMI over 42.2 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI below 42.2 percent indicates the overall economy is declining.

Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2009-2012
       
  NMIBusiness ActivityNew OrdersEmploymentPrices
 Jan200943.144.140.736.241.6
Feb200941.540.640.437.047.6
Mar200940.042.837.231.938.7
Apr200943.445.046.836.340.3
May200944.243.145.937.947.5
Jun200946.850.149.641.554.5
Jul200947.047.049.741.342.7
Aug200949.152.151.743.461.6
Sep200950.553.853.344.749.1
Oct200950.955.055.442.652.7
Nov200949.350.954.942.858.1
Dec200949.953.051.644.658.5
  NMIBusiness ActivityNew OrdersEmploymentPrices
 Jan201050.251.852.745.859.7
Feb201051.753.053.147.158.2
Mar201053.257.357.947.959.2
Apr201054.859.457.748.664.1
May201055.361.057.849.360.6
Jun201054.559.756.348.858.2
Jul201054.757.558.550.857.8
Aug201052.856.155.049.160.0
Sep201053.753.355.351.159.1
Oct201055.460.158.452.067.1
Nov201056.158.658.854.664.5
Dec201057.162.962.052.068.7
       
Jan201157.761.761.953.570.8
Feb201158.163.561.755.271.0
Mar201155.458.058.953.369.5
Apr201154.556.455.752.971.0
May201154.754.756.054.169.1
Jun201153.855.154.953.164.0
Jul201153.757.054.053.262.8
Aug201154.457.155.252.362.0
Sep201152.856.656.248.760.8
Oct201153.154.353.752.356.8
Nov201152.856.054.051.162.2
Dec201152.756.353.949.161.4
       
Jan201256.058.757.856.562.3
Feb201256.160.359.654.967.9
Mar201255.058.456.655.464.3
Apr201253.755.254.253.955.9
May201254.156.055.651.851.4
Jun201252.752.454.752.751.0
Jul201252.956.955.449.957.2
Aug201254.356.355.653.962.3
Sep201255.259.657.852.066.1
Oct201254.856.856.154.860.8
Nov201254.860.958.051.456.9
Dec201255.760.858.355.356.1

 

Beginning in January 2008, ISM began calculating a composite index for the Non-Manufacturing sector (NMI)

Charts Illustrating Former and Revised Indexes can be found at http://www.ism.ws/about/MediaRoom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=23419 (example below)

 

The ISM Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the first supply institute in the world. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months. Founded in 1915, ISM exists to lead and serve the supply management profession and is a highly influential and respected association in the global marketplace. By executing and extending its mission through education, research, standards of excellence, influence building and information dissemination — including the renowned monthly ISM Report On Business® — ISM continues to extend the global impact of supply management. ISM’s membership base includes more than 40,000 supply management professionals in more than 80 countries. Supply management professionals are responsible for trillions of dollars in the purchases of products and services annually. ISM is a member of the International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM).

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