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Around and About: How low can the housing market go?

Edited by Brad Perriello, brad.perriello@reedbusiness.com -- Industrial Distribution, 5/1/2007

How low can it go?

The end of the slumping housing market could come as soon as this summer—or much later, depending on whom you ask.

Two years ago, as the housing market reached record highs, the question was, “When will the bubble burst?” Now, after more than a year of tumbling statistics and woeful earnings reports from home builders, the question is, “When will the housing market recover?”

Sales of new, single-family houses fell 3.9 percent from January to February, according to the U.S. Commerce Dept.—a whopping 18.3 percent decline from February 2006 and the lowest rate in seven years.

The Northeast and the Midwest were hit particularly hard, with new home sales dropping 27 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Only the West saw any improvement; new home sales there rose nearly 25 percent.

The National Assn. of Realtors predicts better times for home builders and sellers this year—but can't say exactly when the tide will turn.

“Underlying trends point to a housing recovery in 2007, but it will take a couple months for us to get a better handle on it,” said David Lereah, the association's chief economist. “Existing-home sales are expected to slowly improve … but we think there will be some additional pain in the new home market, which hopefully will start to rise later in the year.”

But the coming retirement wave could mean the slump persists into 2008 and beyond, as Baby Boomers begin to leave the workforce and sell their homes. As The New York Times put it in an editorial late last year, “The house party is over, but Americans don't yet know how bad the hangover is going to be.”

New Home Starts (in thousands)
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Northeast 154.5 149.2 158.4 162.6 175.4 189.7 167.2
Midwest 317.5 330.4 349.6 374.1 355.7 357.4 279.5
South 713.6 732.0 781.5 838.7 908.5 996.1 910.3
West 383.1 391.1 415.5 472.3 516.2 525.1 443.8
Total 1,568.7 1,602.7 1,704.9 1,847.7 1,955.8 2,068.3 1,800.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Company News

ITW Dymon/Dykem, an MRO specialty chemical and marking system manufacturer based in Olathe, Kan., and the Quick Cable Corp., a maker of electrical connectors, cable assemblies, wire cutting and crimping tools, joined IBC as preferred suppliers to IBC's IndustrialSupplyPlus division…SJF Material Handling of Winsted, Minn., was named a distributor of TGW-Ermanco Inc.'s line of roller conveyors and other material handling systems…Knaack Manufacturing Co. debuted new Web sites for its Knaack and Weather Guard product lines. The new sites, www.knaack.com and www.weatherguard.com, feature better navigation tools and easy-to-find products and information…

Mergers & Acquisitions

Motion Industries increased its reach into Arkansas with its purchase of Jonesboro Bearing & SupplyWinWholesale Inc. acquired Tri-State Electrical Supply Inc. of Silverton, Ohio...Airgas Inc. agreed to buy most of Linde AG's American packaged gas business for $310 million in cash. The acquisition follows Airgas' purchase of Linde's U.S. bulk gases business...FCX Performance Inc. acquired RVS Controls & Instrumentation, a process controls distributor based in Phoenixville, Pa....Premier Farnell plc agreed to sell its BuckHickman InOne unit to the BSS Group plc for $53 million...Wolseley's Stock Building Supply acquired Albuquerque Door...ISCO Industries of Louisville, Ky., bought Industrial Underground Co. of Houston...F&M Mafco agreed to buy most of the assets of Carolina Industrial Tools Inc....

Awards & Honors

W.W. Grainger Inc. announced its 2006 Partners in Performance awards. This year the company honored Bacou-Dalloz's Miller Fall Protection and Howard Leight divisions, Justrite Manufacturing Co., Klein Tools Inc., the M.K. Morse Co., North Safety Equipment, Spectrum Brands' Rayovac division, Weiler Corp., Milwaukee Electric and Fluke Corp. for excellence in responsiveness, information integrity, on-time shipping, cost control, management commitment and order fulfillment… Richards Equipment Co. was named Small Business Contractor of the Year by the federal General Services Administration…The Home Depot presented the second-annual Hispanic Pro Customer of the Year Award to Houston-based PV Roofing for its leadership and entrepreneurial qualities.

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