Sales expectations among electrical distributors remain steady, according to the National Assn. of Electrical Distributors' Quarterly Sales Change Expectation survey, with 84 percent of respondents estimating increased sales in the third quarter of 2004. The fourth-quarter outlook was slightly more cautious, with 77.5 percent of respondents anticipating positive change.

Nearly half of the 275 respondents (48.4 percent) expected increases of 10 percent or more for the third quarter of 2004, demonstrating tempered optimism, compared to the last QSCE survey, where 53.7 percent estimated the growth at that level. Seasonal considerations could be affecting those estimates, according to the report, but other categories with large responses include: sales growth by 8 percent to 9.9 percent (7.3%); 5 percent to 5.9 percent (6.2%); 1 percent to 1.9 percent (5.1%); and 6 percent to 7.9 percent (4.9%). Fewer than 6 percent estimated flat sales for the quarter, and estimates of negative sales were conservative, with only 2.2 percent anticipating losses of 10 percent or more.

The distributors' outlook for the fourth quarter was positive, but conservative. According to the report, more than three quarters of the respondents anticipated an increase in sales, while the largest segment of respondents, 29.8 percent, expected growth of 10 percent or more, slightly less than expectations for the same category on the last QSCE survey (34.5%).

The Midwest led the nation on positive sales, experiencing an increase in sales expectations from 86.1 percent in the second quarter to 92.6 percent in the third. The South and Northeast regions reported 85.5 percent and 82.9 percent, respectively. For the fourth quarter, the South was the most optimistic in sales expectations (83.1%), followed by the Midwest (79.8%), Northeast (71.4%), and West (69.8%).

Comparing the last six quarters (second quarter of 2003 through the third quarter of 2004), distributors' sales expectations have shown an increase of more than 15 percent. In the second quarter of 2003, just fewer than 70 percent of respondents indicated an anticipation of positive sales, while the current survey shows nearly 85 percent of respondents estimated sales increases for the third quarter of 2004. Ninety percent, the highest amount of respondents experiencing positive sales, was reported in the second quarter of 2004.

The top sales expectation category, where respondents expected an increase of 10 percent or more, has seen the largest change throughout the QSCE history. In the second quarter of 2003, 26 percent of respondents estimated that their sales would increase by 10 percent or more. By the third quarter of 2004, those estimates had nearly doubled to 48.4 percent.