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Economy still on the upswing

Staff -- Industrial Distribution, 2/1/2004

Newton, Mass.—As the manufacturing economy continues to grow, the nation's purchasing and supply managers are confident that a recovery is indeed underway.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in December for the sixth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 26th consecutive month, according to the latest Manufacturing Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

ISM's Purchasing Managers Index registered 66.2 percent in December, an increase of 3.4 points compared to November's 62.8 percent. A reading higher than 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; lower than 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

"With the PMI growing at an accelerating rate, the manufacturing sector enjoyed its best month since December 1983," said Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee and group director, strategic sourcing and procurement for the Georgia-Pacific Corp.

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index indicates that order backlogs increased in December, and the Employment Index grew for the second consecutive month. ISM's Prices Index indicates that manufacturers once again experienced higher prices in their New Export Orders and Import Indexes continue to grow, with exports accelerating in December.

ISM reports that comments from purchasing and supply managers validate that a recovery is underway, adding that month-over-month improvement is significant to many respondents for the first time in three years.

Of the 20 industries in the manufacturing sector, 17 reported growth: instruments and photographic equipment; leather; furniture; miscellaneous; apparel; electronic components and computers; primary metals; printing and publishing; fabricated metals; food; wood and wood products; glass, stone and aggregate; and rubber and plastic products.

ISM Business Survey At-A-Glance
Series IndexDirectionRate of Change
Dec. vs. Nov.Dec. vs. Nov.
PMI66.2GrowingFaster
New Orders77.6GrowingFaster
Production73.0GrowingFaster
Employment55.5GrowingFaster
Supplier Deliveries58.8SlowingFaster
Inventories47.3ContractingFrom Unchanged
Customers' Inventories39.0Too LowFaster
Prices66.0IncreasingFaster
Backlog of Orders61.0GrowingFaster
New Export Orders60.4GrowingFaster
Imports57.8GrowingSlower
Source: Institute for Supply Management

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