Washington—As the Congress and the Senate returned to Capitol Hill in January, political observers were not expecting 2004 to be a particularly productive year in terms of new legislation getting passed.

With this being a presidential election year, Capitol Hill tradition virtually guarantees that any politically controversial legislation may not even come up for a vote. Not that such legislation won't be discussed—both major parties are bound to compare the views, actions and inactions of their candidates to that of the opposition. But getting such matters passed, or even brought up for a vote, can be another matter.

Health care, to nobody's surprise, is at the top of everyone's list of concerns.

"Health care is always near the top, although there's not much legislatively that has any real likelihood of passing," said Jade West, senior vice-president/government relations for the National Assn. of Wholesaler-Distributors. Passage of the Medicare bill late last year, "may well satisfy the political need to pass a health care measure," she added.

"Most of our members are small- to mid-size, family-owned companies, so [health care] is a serious issue facing them," said Georgia Foley, executive director of the Specialty Tools & Fasteners Distributors Assn.

While action is not expected, one health care plan being watched closely is the Association Health Plan.

"This would enable legitimate business associations to amalgamate, if you will, interstate membership, to offer health care across state lines complying only with one set of federal regulations that would govern the plan," West explained.

This would be similar to the way many pensions work, for example. Pension plans are offered across state lines in a way that doesn't require them to comply with the laws in all 50 states. The AHP bill would enable associations such as NAW to offer health coverage in much the same way.

Now, West explained, for an organization like NAW to offer health care plans to its members, it would have to comply with every separate state law in terms of health care mandates and limitations on co-payments, among other things.

While AHP passed the House in June by a wide margin, there is less enthusiasm for it in the Senate, West said. Some opponents are concerned that it would allow the insurers to "cherry pick" the healthy people it will cover, thus leaving behind those considered uninsurable (the elderly and the sick). And some Republicans don't want to create a federal regulatory health care plan—which is what some fear could result.

"This is one of our top legislative priorities," West said. "But I don't think it will get through this year."

John Satagaj, president and general counsel of the Small Business Legislative Council, reluctantly agrees.

"We place health care in our top five issues," he said. "But the outlook is not bright at all for the Association Health Plan."

West agrees with most observers who think that if any legislation gets passed at all this year, it will be early in the session.

"By May, the political dynamics of the presidential election cycle will be so dominant," she said, "that any ability to have Congress pass anything controversial will be seriously impaired."

Other issues that will be discussed, either legislatively or on the various campaign trails, include:

Energy: West says the energy bill, "is on life support." Democrats have filibustered it successfully and while there is broad Republican support overall, West concedes that even some Republicans admit the bill could be too big and costly. She doesn't give it much of a chance.

Satagaj also doubts action will be taken. He adds that, "The deficit will weigh even more heavily on the energy bill this year than last year."

If the energy bill were to be broken apart, some aspects of it may actually then get passed, he speculated, "but there's no indication that they'll pursue that strategy."

Asbestos: An asbestos litigation reform bill has drawn some bipartisan support in the Senate. It also has won support from the somewhat unlikely pairing of several labor unions and companies who are facing major lawsuits. The bill would create a trust fund for payments to asbestos victims, and take much of the related asbestos litigation out of the court system. The fight to date has been over how much money will go into the trust fund, and who will contribute to it.

"We have a concern at NAW because there's a possibility that some companies affected by this may have such a [financial] obligation to fund the trust fund, that the measure would actually cost them more than if they stayed in the court system," West said. "Some companies feel they might do better in court than they would if this passes."

Class action reform: While some such as NAW would prefer action be taken toward reforming product liability laws, the class action legislation would be, "a necessary fix, a very significant first step toward fixing some of the problems in the tort system," West said.

The proposed class action measure would limit venue shopping on the part of lawyers. The bill would require that a certain percentage of the plaintiffs in class action lawsuits actually reside in the jurisdiction of the court where that case is being heard. The bill has passed the House and has enough bipartisan support in the Senate that it is expected to get to President Bush's desk this spring.

Federal deficit: "In terms of government policy, the deficit is probably our biggest concern," Satagaj said. Between possible tax cuts, contrasted with defense spending and anti-terrorism measures, cutting the deficit is unlikely in 2004.

"As a practical matter, we don't see much hope," Satagaj said, of the deficit being cut this year. "I'm not sure where they'll find a place to do that."

Satagaj and the SBLC represent STAFDA, among others. He says he'll be watching for any possible action on the Estate Tax and overtime pay regulations. But he says he is resigned to election-year realities.

"For the small businesses, specifically, that I represent…there will be some action, but not the type of action that my basic constituency would like to see," Satagaj said.