TEMPE, ARIZ. — "Slow but sure" best describes the long pullout of manufacturers from the bleak sales figures they posted during the last two years. According to the Institute for Supply Management, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index remained above its breakeven mark, at 53.9, for the month of January, 2003. Any mark above 50 signals that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding.

Importantly, the figure continues a string of 12 months over-50, with the exception of last October's 49.7.

Norbert Ore, ISM's chair of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said that although the growth rate of 53.9 was down from December (55.2), new orders remained strong and work-in-production was steady. In February, fears of a war and a possible energy crisis as a result, kept the sector from growing further, Ore said.

While unemployment continues to rise, inventories came down as more goods were bought off the shelves.

"Overall the signs are still positive for the first quarter," Ore said. "Customers' inventories remain low and provide prospects for continuing strength in new orders."

Keeping sustained growth alive is a top concern for manufacturers, who have seen the economy swing wildly for 60 months or more. Retail figures for January showed housing and auto sales slowing while sales of other goods rose slightly, according to a report from economy.com. Part of the sales rise was reflected by higher gasoline prices, the report said.

New industrial orders were up in January, but at a slower rate than December. Industrial goods sectors in which orders grew include fabricated and primary metals, transportation and equipment, industrial and commercial equipment, computers, chemicals and electronic equipment.

Non-manufacturing activity increased slightly in January, according to ISM, with a Business Activity Index of 54.5. December's BAI was 54.2. New orders were up 1.6 points and employment was up a surprising 3.4 points, said Ralph G. Kauffman, chair of ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.