Within two years, the economic turnaround in the U.S. and North America will be in full swing with strong job growth continuing, causing some worker shortages, according to Bob Treadway, a nationally known business strategy consultant.

Treadway, speaking at the annual convention of the National Assn. of Hose & Accessories Distributors in May, said job demand will grow by 16 percent in the next two years. At the same time, he said the number of workers in the U.S. will grow by only seven percent, while in Europe the size of the workforce will actually decline. He also noted that the 55- to 64-year-old age sector will be the fastest-growing segment of the nation's workforce.

Treadway pointed out that re-training and retention of workers will be the keys to satisfying the increased job demand.

Productivity increases, which have been sharply rising in the U.S., will not increase at the same rate, he said, adding that American workers already work 400 hours more per year than their counterparts in countries like Spain and Japan.

These job increases may create problems for distributors and manufacturers. What this will mean is that companies must look to cross-train employees so they can develop expertise in more than one area. It will also be vital for companies to have a new way to recruit, screen, and hire new employees. In addition, employers will have to take extra steps to insure that they retain existing employees.

Lastly, older workers will have a new importance in the marketplace as employers develop a new-found respect for their expertise, technical skills and ability to mentor younger workers. Employers may have to be more flexible and accept that older workers might want to work part-time. Employers might also consider developing job-sharing roles among their employees.

Today it is an employer's market. But if this forecast is correct, it will become an employee's market and companies may have to adopt new procedures for dealing with the shift in demand for job creation.

jkeough@cahners.com