A wireless frontier

But the absence of standards may slow adoption of wireless Web-access technologies

By -- Industrial Distribution, 12/1/2000

In the beginning there was the cellular telephone. And distributors saw that it was good and rejoiced.

And in the fullness of time the cell phone begat the cellular modem and the cellular modem begat the digital alphanumeric pager. And distributors began to realize that their slave-like dependence upon wired connections to access Internet data might well be drawing to an end.

In fact, technology watchers are predicting that the next dramatic development in the life of the Internet will be wireless Web access. In the brave new world of wireless access it will be possible for distributors and their customers to use small hand-held personal-digital-assistant-like devices or Web-enabled digital cell phones to check pricing, inventory, availability, shipping instructions, send and receive their e-mail from anyplace in the world or just "surf the net." And they will do it with the same ease and transparency that they enjoy sitting at their desks in the office.

Last August InfoWorld magazine conducted a survey among information technology professionals and found that:

• 50.9 percent are in the process of evaluating wireless for future use

• 25.2 percent are currently using wireless Internet access

• 17.7 percent are testing wireless access via pilot programs

• 6.2 percent are launching initial deployment of wireless technologies.

According to Strategy Analytics, a technology consulting firm, the worldwide market for wireless Internet-capable devices including handheld computers, microbrowser phones, and multimedia phones is expected to grow from $10 billion to a staggering $73 billion annually by 2005.

Strategy Analytics predicts that by 2005 basic microbrowser cellphones will represent 70 percent of total unit volume and 60 percent of annual shipment revenues. The organization also sees a strong market for handheld computing devices.

GartnerGroup, a leading e-business consulting firm, concurs. Gartner says that the mobile phone market is increasingly reaping the benefits of the proliferation of the wireless Web.

The firm points out that "comprehensive changes are taking place... from second generation voice-centric handsets to data-enabled devices of varying flavors, such as iMode and wireless application protocol (WAP)." Gartner reports that the "Big Three" handset manufacturers-Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson-continue to dominate mobile phone sales. Gartner says that the combined sales of these three accounted for 53 percent of worldwide mobile phone sales during the second quarter of this year.

The only factor that is inhibiting even more rapid adoption of wireless Web access in the United States is that American carriers have yet to settle on a common transmission protocol.

In contrast, Europe has already adopted the Global System Mobile (GSM) standard. But as occurred in the early stages of EDI, there are currently several incompatible and competing standards being used in the U.S.A.: Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) and Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA), as well as the European GSM. While there has been tacit agreement in principle by the U.S. wireless industry to rally behind the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), WAP-ready devices are just beginning to trickle into the marketplace.

But whether you're wired or wireless you can still send your comments and/or suggestions to Doug Harper at harper.d@att.net.